Prime Minister Jack Layton?

The last couple of days have shown some pretty wacky poll numbers, with the NDP now ahead of the Liberals, and within a few points of the Conservatives.  Most of the new polls even have the NDP winning somewhere between 80 and 108 seats.  If you would have asked me a week ago if this was even possible, I would have thought you were crazy for even asking.  The NDP’s best showing ever was in 1988, when they received 43 seats, and they have only ever gotten at least 30 seats in 4 more elections.  Now, over the course of a few days, their support has grown past the stage of splitting the vote with the Liberals to actually being a threat to many Conservative seats.

How did this happen?  I honestly have no idea.  It’s not as if Jack Layton has done anything different in the last week to draw in voters.  He has been the leader of the party since 2003, and he has been the same person running the same party since then.  This is his fourth election where he has promised voters the moon, and I was expecting this to be the fourth election where most voters acknowledge that his platform makes no sense.

This sudden surge probably has less to do with anything that the  NDP has done, and more to do with the complete and utter implosion of the Liberal Party.  But even that doesn’t fully account for the surge, since it seemed to have started in Quebec, and then spread elsewhere.  Maybe voters in other provinces saw the NDP beating on the Bloc, and figured it was a good time to beat on the Liberals as well.

Whatever the reasons, it looks like the NDP will do very well this election.  I still believe that the current polls are overstating the amount of support that they will get on election day, but it’s impossible to completely ignore these numbers.  There is still a very good chance that the NDP will gain more seats than the Liberals for the first time ever.  But as far as I am concerned, there is no way they will get more seats than the Conservatives, so Layton won’t become the Prime Minister by winning the election outright.

That still leaves the possibility of a coalition with the Liberals, which is theoretically even more plausible if the NDP strips enough seats from the Conservatives so that the NDP plus the Liberals have enough seats to form a majority.  The Conservatives certainly want you to think that a coalition with Jack Layton at the helm is the only thing worse than a coalition with Michael Ignatieff at the helm.

But I think that a coalition is less likely with the NDP forming the major party, even if a coalition without the Bloc produced a majority.  For better or worse, the Liberal Party has a lot of pride, and I believe that most members won’t stand for being second chair to a party that never even come close to being the official opposition, let alone forming the government.  This would be the first time since Confederation that the Liberal Party of Canada has not either formed the government or been the official opposition.  I think this would finally be the kick in the pants that the Liberals need to force them towards some serious introspection.

Ever since Paul Martin lost the 2006 election, the Liberal Party has been wandering aimlessly, hoping that Canadians will finally realize what a jerk Stephen Harper is, and vote the Liberals back to their rightful place as the governing party.  The Liberals have never even tried to rebrand themselves after the devastating effects of the sponsorship scandal, and they won’t be able to do that if they are the minority party in a coalition government.  Plus, it risks making them seem even more irrelevant when compared to the NDP.

As directionless and oblivious to reality that the current Liberal party has been, I don’t think that they will be able to ignore a loss to the NDP.  And that more than anything is what will keep Jack Layton from 24 Sussex.

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2 Responses to Prime Minister Jack Layton?

  1. R says:

    Instead, the Liberals plan to prop up Stephen Harper without any conditions. That is the alternative, isn’t it. If it’s a minority and the decision is made to thwart the NDP, that’s the only way to do that, to create a solid majority under Stephen Harper’s command. The polls show that a Layton-led government is the favourite option. They will not be pleased if they get an unrestrained Harper instead.

    • The Liberals don’t necessarily need to give Harper a carte blanche. They could probably squeeze a few concessions out of the Conservatives on a case-by-case basis. If the Liberals get their act together, supporting the Conservatives will probably help them in the long run more than supporting the NDP, since propping up Layton just gives the NDP more legitimacy and the Liberals less relevance. Getting liberal policies from the Conservatives is more noticeable to the electorate than getting slightly liberal policies from the NDP.

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